Scenario outcomes are exhaustive terminal prices. Enter probabilities totaling 100%, a shared horizon, and separate confidence per ticker. The allocation uses that horizon. At 50% confidence the posterior also retains prior outcomes outside your three prices. Up to four scenario tickers.

Targets are price forecasts over the selected horizon, with no additional forecast dividends. A blank target means no view; a target of 0 means total price loss over that horizon. Confidence controls how strongly views influence the model, not the probability of reaching a target. Names without views start from zero excess return, but other views can affect them through correlations.

Current weights are signed NAV fractions; a blank current weight means zero. Historical cash uses the selected data source. Short-borrow and financing spreads remain assumptions, not broker quotes. Today's target prices are never used in historical replay.